We have less than a month left until Cannes likely triggers the first mass Oscar chatter of the year. (More so if Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” is included in tomorrow’s Official Selection announcement.) These are precious days, then … enjoy them while they last.
Of course, if my “precious” is your “miserable,” and you’ve spent the last five weeks suffering Oscar-talk withdrawal, the indefatigable Nathaniel Rogers over at The Film Experience has your fix. You’ll remember that Kris decided against doing year-in-advance nomination predictions this year, which makes this very thorough Oscar forecast the first of its kind I’ve seen this year.
Needless to say, a hefty pinch of salt is required at this foetal stage in the competition — Nathaniel himself headlines his predictions with the caveat “for fun and discussion.” Still, his lists raise some interesting possibilities: most notably, a Best Picture slate with a very different populist-specialist balance to last year’s ten.
With so many slots to play with, “Inception” is understandably in the mix, though I sense it could be something of an all-or-nothing proposition. But Rogers fills out his projected 10 with a number of smaller titles heavy on writing and performance potential, including Mike Leigh’s “Another Year,” Lisa Cholodenko’s “The Kids Are All Right” and John Cameron Mitchell’s “Rabbit Hole.” (He also places much stock in The Weinstein Company’s royalty biopic “The King’s Speech,” which reeks of “Last Station”-style mustiness to me.)
Judging completely blindly, of course, this strikes me as wise. After last year’s unusually public-friendly Best Picture slate, with its double-shot of sci-fi and concessions to animation and heartland schmaltz, I sense many pundits might be overly keen to pinpoint this year’s “Avatar” or this year’s “The Blind Side.”
They shouldn’t. Contrary to popular belief, the Academy doesn’t vote with “slots” in mind — they choose from whatever critical and/or popular hits are thrown up in a given year. Last year presented an unusual amount of critically approved blockbusters, neatly dovetailing with an equally unexpected number of baity December misfires. Voters know, as do we, that an “Avatar”-style phenomenon doesn’t happen every year; as such, they might well be content to slide back into their comfort zone of high-minded prestige bait.
Anyway, that’s as much as I want to think about the Oscars for a good long while. Enjoy Nathaniel’s projections here … just take them in the right spirit.